Climate change risk zonation for agricultural production in Thu Duc City

This study was conducted to comprehensively assess hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, thereby delineating climate change-driven risks to agricultural land in Thu Duc City. The methodological framework integrates the established assessment guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to ensure spatial precision. The requisite input data encompasses meteorological, hydrological, and topographical parameters, supplemented by primary data from household surveys regarding current production status and adaptive capacity. Specifically, hazard and exposure maps were meticulously simulated based on the annual frequency of extreme heat events, heavy precipitation, drought spells, and tidal inundation. Concurrently, vulnerability maps were constructed by synthesizing diverse socio-economic criteria, including farming experience, income diversification, levels of institutional support, and future land-use orientations. Through the application of advanced spatial overlay techniques, the research established a robust set of integrated risk maps for the baseline period (1995-2014) and future projections (2041-2060) under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The analytical findings reveal a distinct spatial differentiation of risk levels across geographical sectors and climate scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), extreme heat and tidal flooding were identified as the most critical factors threatening agricultural stability. Conversely, risk levels were found to be significantly mitigated under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-1.9). In conclusion, this research provides a fundamental spatial database and scientific evidence to assist local authorities in formulating effective climate adaptation strategies and steering the development of sustainable urban agriculture in the face of future environmental uncertainties.

How to Cite

Nguyen, L.Duy and Pham, K.Minh Nguyen 2026. Climate change risk zonation for agricultural production in Thu Duc City (in Vietnamese). Journal of Mining and Earth Sciences. 67, 5 (Oct, 2026), 141-155. DOI:https://doi.org/10.46326/JMES.2026.67(5).11.

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