Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to assess and predict the surface subsidence at the Mong Duong coal mine, Quang Ninh province of Vietnam due to mining activities. For this purpose, a monitoring network for the site was established, and then, the land subsidence data were obtained during the period from 2013 to 2015 with twelve cycles. Two cases were tested. In the first case, the data in the first ten cycles were used. In the second case, seven cycles from the 4th cycle were utilized to establish the parameters of the Knothe time function. Meanwhile, the remaining data were used for the model validation and confirmation of its prediction capability. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correlation coefficient (r) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) were employed to assess the overall performance of the prediction model. The result showed that the model performed well with validation dataset for the second case (RMSE=85 mm, MAE= 61 mm, r=0.977, R2=0.906). It can be concluded that the Knothe time function model is sufficient if some first cycles are removed when calculating the model parameters