Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model is designed to estimate the water containment rick for rock-fill dams during interim seasonal flooding based on the condition that the water must not flow over the top of the dam and other stochastic factors such as the level of the floodwater in front of the dam and the high water level during flooding. The characteristics of the rock fill dam construction system, and the number of days each month when the dam is under maintenance and the stochasticity of the average speed of the increase in the water level per day are considered for designing a model to calculate the simulated height for flood prevention during interim flooding. Based on the Monte Carlo method, the risk assessment model is solved by linking stochastic elements for hydrology, hydropower, and construction. Furthermore, the influence of the controllable construction indicator, which is the minimum average daily rising speed, on the risk rate is researched.